Results of the Population Prediction in Kosovo, 2017-2061
Kosovo Agency of Statistics (KAS), with technical support from UNFPA, has presented today the results of the Second Population Prediction Report in Kosovo, 2017-2061. On this occasion, a conference was organized at the premises of Hotel Swiss Diamond, which was attended by a large number of representatives of local and international institutions and the media.
Part of the panel were: Mr. Andrew Rusell, the Coordinator for Development and UNFPA Representative; Mr. Petrit Selimi, the MCC National Coordinator for Kosovo; and Mrs. Visare Mujko-Nimani, the UNFPA Program Leader in Kosovo. Meanwhile, for the coordination and methodology applied in this report spoke Prof. Nico Keilman from the Department of Economics of the University of Oslo, while for the challenges and the usage of these developments spoke Mr. Avni Kastrati, Director of Social Statistics at KAS.
In his introductory speech at the conference, Mr. Isa Krasniqi, the Chief Executive Officer of KAS, spoke about the importance of this publication as it is a very useful orientation for population trends by 2061 that will be offered to the general public inside and outside of Kosovo. Also, this Report will be very useful for demographers, statisticians, researchers, analysts, etc. to make time analyzes and its components for future years with the hypotheses mentioned for fertility, mortality and migration developments, and will be important for analyzing demographic trends in the country. The data of this Report should be considered as the latest alarm for the drastic trends of population decline in the Republic of Kosovo in future periods.
In the end of his speech, he thanked all the contributors, in particular international organizations such as UNFPA that consistently assists KAS in the realization of major projects. He also thanked Mr. Petrit Selimi for his contribution.
Mr. Andrew Rusell said that "in Kosovo we need to be informed about how the population shapes the world we live in". He said that "for stopping youth migration outside Kosovo, we should offer reforms and advances in improving their lives. We have an opportunity to invest in vocational education, to work for them to grow in a good environment and live in an environment where they do not suffer from environmental shortcomings".
Mr. Petrit Selimi spoke about the survey conducted with 32 000 respondents by MCC and international partners. He also highly appreciated the work of KAS. "The work being done by KAS in developing and perfecting the methodology is one of the biggest contributions, but which is not known by our decision makers."
Mrs. Visare Mujko-Nimani said that the statistics of the state of the population inform policy makers about the country's situation after many years, predicting the life of a country for different sectors. "This report is the most important long-term planning research where policy makers can see the state of the population after many years of what is foreseen for water requirements, public services (education, health). Statistics tell policymakers about the future of the country, inform them of any unsatisfactory situation that may come after many years", said among others, Nimani.
A more detailed presentation on three variants (high, medium and low) was made by Prof. Keilman, who said that different planning and analysis should be oriented to the medium variant. Meanwhile, the high and low variant yields demographic prospects that are less likely to occur.
Meanwhile, Mr. Avni Kastrati, presented detailed data on future demographic trends by presenting worrying figures about the population. Thus, demographic data by age group divided by decades, according to the medium variant, are: 1,783,531 in 2017; 1,809,458 in 2021; 1,818,674 in 2031; 1,759,492 in 2041; 1,652,090 in 2051; and 1,492,192 in 2061.